Viewing archive of Friday, 12 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Only three isolated C-class
events occurred during the period. The largest being an optically
uncorrelated C2 event at 12/1212 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with isolated M-class events possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single
mid-latitude active period occurring at 12/0300-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 178 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 175/180/185 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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