Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Several small C class X-ray
events have been recorded, most were optically uncorrelated. A new
region has rotated over the east limb, Region 9313 (S08E73). This
area contains a D type spot group and may actually be two separate
regions. Region 9314 (N15W44) was also numbered. A small region
may be developing near S29E55.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 152 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 148/145/140 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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