Viewing archive of Friday, 22 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9280 (N09E35) showed an increase in spot count and penumbral coverage. This large, moderately complex region produced isolated, low-level C-class subflares as it continued to gradually develop. No significant changes were observed in the remaining regions. New Region 9283 (S15E79) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9280.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels during the first two days of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on the third day as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 190
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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