Viewing archive of Friday, 19 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A long duration
M1/Sf flare occurred in Region 9313 (S07E57), max at 19/1710 UTC.
This event consisted of several eruptive centers that brightened at
various times over the duration of the flare. A small filament in
this region was also reported active during the event and a CME was
observed. Several new regions were numbered: Region 9315
(S28E44), Region 9316 (S17E75), and Region 9317 (N08W72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 153 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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