Viewing archive of Monday, 12 February 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. A general state of decay prevailed, as shown by the 6 sfu drop in today's 10.7 cm flux. Isolated C-class flares occurred with an impulsive C5 at 0118 UTC the largest of the period. EIT data suggest Region 9338 (S20W39) the source of this flare. Late in the interval, a C4/Sf flare from Region 9334 (N13W67) occurred at 2037 UTC. A type II sweep was associated with this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. There is an increasing chance of isolated active periods 14 February with the anticipated passage of a CME on 11 February.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 145
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/010-010/010-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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