Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9306 (N11W53) produced
a C2/Sf X-ray event at 16/0611Z. Otherwise, only a few minor
optically uncorrelated events occurred. While Region 9306 is now
classified as an Fki beta-gamma sunpot group, an overall decrease in
white light area and the number of spots was observed since
yesterday. New Region 9312 (N08E60) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. Region 9306 continues to have the capability to
produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 162 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-005/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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