Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 February 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class X-ray events occurred with the highest being a C6/Sf produced by Region 9354 (S08W32) at 21/1427Z. Region 9354 has stayed about the same in size and number of spots but has increased in magnetic complexity since yesterday. New Region 9360 (S11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. However, the is a chance for an isolated M-class event from either Region 9354 or Region 9359 (N10E64).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A non-Earth directed CME occurred yesterday behind the NE limb.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M20%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 144
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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