Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9364 (S10W30)
produced a C1/sf at 01/1822 UTC. A 9 degree filament (S30E40)
disappeared between 28/1734 UTC and 01/1113 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on the second and third day of the
forecast as a result of the CME observed on 28 February.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 131 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 005/005-015/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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