Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Three optically
uncorrelated M1 flares occurred during the period, at 22/0515, 0821,
and 1319 UTC respectively. The M1 flare at 0821 UTC had an
associated Type II radio sweep. Active Region 9373 (S05W92) had
mostly rotated over the western limb by the end of the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The ACE
spacecraft recorded a shock at the L1 point at 22/1250 UTC. This
event initiated a 12 nT sudden impulse as recorded by the Boulder
station. Minor storming was reported at mid-latitudes during the
period of 22/1500-1800 UTC. Activity then returned to unsettled
conditions for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a high speed coronal
stream may be expected during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 183 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 015/015-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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