Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9401 (N22E30)
produced an impulsive M2/1N event at 27/1630Z. This event had an
associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 500 km/s. Region
9393 (N17E11) grew significantly in area overnight and maintains a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration; however, the region
has only produced C-class X-ray events during the period. Several
other C-class events occurred from Regions 9390 (N14W22), and 9402
(N14W11). New Region 9404 (S06E66) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. Two different
shocks were observed on the ACE spacecraft. The first shock
occurred at 27/0108Z with an associated sudden impulse of 27 nT on
the Boulder magnetometer at 27/0145Z. This activity was believed to
be associated with the CME back on 24 March. The second shock
occurred at 27/1718Z with an associated sudden impulse of 10 nT
observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/1745Z. The second shock
was believed to be associated with the halo CME on 25 March. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchonous orbit was enhanced
during the period, but stayed below event threshold with an observed
maximum of approximately 6 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to minor storm conditions
with isolated major storm conditions possible during the first day
of the period. This possible increase in activity is due to the
faint full halo CME seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery on 25 March at
approximately 1700Z. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to
predominately quiet to unsettled conditions the rest of the period
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 273 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 235/240/240 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 020/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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