Viewing archive of Monday, 7 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity was low. X-ray flare activity consisted
of mid-sized C-class events from Region 9445 (S25W42). The region
possesses bright plage and a modest degree of magnetic complexity.
The most spectacular events of the day came from behind the west
limb. The LASCO coronagraph saw a dramatic cme moving westward at
about 07/1000 UTC. Somewhat later, another cme was launched in the
same approximate trajectory. This second event may have been related
to flare activity in Region 9445 (C3/Sf at 1220 UTC). Elsewhere, one
new region was numbered, 9452 (S09E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9445 may generate an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A
prolonged period of southward IMF, from approximately
06/2200-07/0800 UTC, spawned active to minor storm conditions at mid
and high latitudes. More normal conditions have occurred lately,
with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 07/1915 UTC, and is still in progress. This
activity is thought to be a result of the behind the limb CME seen
to occur near 07/1000 UTC. The maximum greater than 10 MeV flux of
this soft event is 15 pfu at 07/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. This current disturbance should
weaken through the interval. The greater than 10 MeV protons should
slowly subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 138 Predicted 08 May-10 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 07 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/014-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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