Viewing archive of Friday, 18 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9461 (N19E39) was the
most active region during the period, producing a C4/Sf event at
17/2142 UTC. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C6
flare at 18/0640 UTC. Regions 9454 (N14W33) and 9455 (S17W80) began
to show signs of decay and decreased activity today. One new region
was numbered overnight, 9462 (N16E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. Region 9461 could possibly produce isolated M-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may reach moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 138 Predicted 19 May-21 May 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 18 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/010-008/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
All times in UTC
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