Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 9468 (N05E25)
produced an M1/1n flare at 24/1944Z. Minor centimetric bursts, a
Type II radio sweep (620 km/s), and a CME also accompanied this
flare. Region 9468 is a moderately complex group covering 150
millionths of white light area and produced frequent brightness
fluctuations throughout the period. A pair of long duration C1
events were observed at 24/0706Z and 24/0901Z, and were likely
associated with an impressive CME originating just behind the NE
limb. A weak Type II sweep was observed at 24/1712Z, associated with
a filament eruption and faint CME near the west limb. The largest
region on the visible disk - Region 9463 remains stable in a simple
beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Regions 9463
and 9468.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnmetic field was quiet to unsettled. We have been under the
influence of a high speed coronal hole stream for almost 40 hours,
but the geomagnetic response so far has been weak.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
through days one and two. Active to minor storm conditions are
possible on day three in response to the CME at 24/1955Z.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 170
Predicted 25 May-27 May 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 24 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/008-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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