Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503
(N16W20) produced a C4/1f flare at 20/2044 UTC. It was the largest
active region on the disk and maintained a minor degree of magnetic
complexity. Region 9506 (N19E08) was stable and showed signs of
gradual decay. Region 9501 (S13W50) produced a C4/Sf flare at
19/2326 UTC associated with a CME that was not Earth-directed. This
region showed no significant changes during the period and remained
a moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group. New Regions 9510
(S06W35) and 9511 (N11E53) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible
during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with brief active periods possible during the first day as
coronal hole effects subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 199 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 012/013-010/011-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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