Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503
(N16W33) produced isolated C-class subflares. Flux emergence
occurred within the interior spots of this region and a magnetic
delta configuration may have developed in the trailer portion of the
group as well. Region 9504 (N08W28) produced isolated C-class
subflares during the period. Regions 9503 and 9504 appeared to be
linked magnetically. Both regions share a common neutral line and
have exhibited some sympathetic flare activity. Region 9506 (N19W04)
maintained a mild mixing of polarities and was stable through the
period. New Regions 9512 (S23E31) and 9513 (N21E76) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9503 could produce an M-class flare
during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may reach high levels during 22 June. Normal to
moderate fluxes are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 200 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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