Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 July 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare. Although there are thirteen numbered regions on the disk, none of them show any outstanding complexity. Region 9539 (S19W58), which has been the most active and complex region for the last 5 days, decayed dramatically. New Regions 9547 (S16W22), 9548 (N17E50), 9549 (S04E57), and 9550 (N08E38) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with occasional unsettled conditions at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 143
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/010-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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