Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 July 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C2/Sf flare from Region 9539 (S18W42) at 17/1024 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speeds reached 600 to 700 km/s due to high-speed streaming from a recurrent coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during the forecast period. The effects of the coronal hole will diminish over day one. This will be followed by a brief interlude while another coronal hole moves into a geo-effective position for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jul 146
  Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        17 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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