Viewing archive of Monday, 13 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Most flare activity was optically uncorrelated, including the largest event, a C4.6 flare at 13/1405 UTC. Region 9574 (S05W38) produced the only optically correlated event for the period, a C1/Sf at 13/1921 UTC. This region has exhibited a moderate increase in magnetic complexity, and is currently the largest active region on the disk, now in an Eki/beta-gamma configuration with 20 spots and 370 millionths areal coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9574 is a potential source of isolated moderate-level flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels, due to the ongoing influence of yesterday's shock passage from the CME activity of 09 August. Some additional influence from a weak high speed stream appears to have also developed over the past 12 hours, with mainly unsettled conditions occurring over that period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, then tapering off to quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter, as the combined influence of CME passage and weak high speed stream effects wane during the course of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 152
  Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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