Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 June 2001

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels. Newly numbered Region 9502 (S26E58) produced an M7/1n flare and CME at 13/1142Z. An M2/Sf flare was also observed earlier in the period from this region. Limb proximity still inhibits a thorough analysis, but the region appears to be a relatively small, moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. Region 9489 (N20W55) produced a number of C-class flares including a C3 with Type II sweep (450 km/s) at 13/0827Z, a C9/Sf with Type II (680 km/s) at 13/1628Z, and an impulsive C7/Sf at 13/1957Z. New Regions 9503 (N13E68), and 9504 (N06E76) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9502 and 9589.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Occasional active periods were observed during local nighttime hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active period are again likely at higher latitudes during local nighttime hours.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       13 Jun 181
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	25%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	30%
Minor storm	05%	05%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 22:46 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (579.5 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (17.7nT), the direction is slightly South (-3.98nT).

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

C7.12

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