Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 July 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Activity remained low. Gradual decay occurred in Region 9543 (S23W58), which produced an isolated C-class subflare. Minor spot growth occurred in Region 9553 (N13E08) early in the period. The remaining active regions were small, stable, and simply structured, including newly numbered Region 9556 (S07W42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low. However, there will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to active levels with brief minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first day as coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 133
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  018/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 20:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.12nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.89nT).

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