Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W78) produced an M1/Sf flare at 07/0737 UTC as well as several C-class subflares throughout the past day. The sunspot group maintains moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9563 (N24W34) also produced C-class subflare activity. New Region 9572 (N16E23) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9557 is the most likely candidate for M-class activity and may produce an isolated major flare before it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Aug 166
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  014/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  015/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.14nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.53nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-54nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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