Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9570 (S12E20) produced the largest event during the period with a C7/1f flare at 09/1834 UTC. A long duration C3 event was observed at 09/1122 UTC. There were no optical reports with this event, however, it was likely associated with a CME observed off of the west limb from the SOHO/LASCO images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9563 (N24W61) and 9566 (N17W45) are both capable of producing possible M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was observed at 09/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for August 10th and 11th. Active conditions are possible on August 12th due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M50%50%30%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 163
  Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/010-010/010-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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