Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 9570 (S12E20) produced
the largest event during the period with a C7/1f flare at 09/1834
UTC. A long duration C3 event was observed at 09/1122 UTC. There
were no optical reports with this event, however, it was likely
associated with a CME observed off of the west limb from the
SOHO/LASCO images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9563 (N24W61) and 9566 (N17W45) are both
capable of producing possible M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was
observed at 09/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for August 10th and 11th. Active
conditions are possible on August 12th due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 163 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-010/010-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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