Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 15/0243 UTC.
Region 9574 (S04W66) produced a C1/Sf at 15/1242 UTC. This region
remains the largest on the visible disk, but has decayed somewhat in
spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday.
Most of the other numbered regions on the disk have also similarly
decayed or remained little changed, and quiet. Exceptions are
formerly spotless Region 9577 (N13W61), which had new spots emerge
today, and two newly numbered regions: 9581 (S28W09) and 9582
(N32E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. A small chance for
isolated moderate flare activity still exists for Region 9574 and
the newly emerged regions noted in Section 1A above.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mainly quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate enhancement levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Thereafter, an onset of magnetic storming is anticipated
from the CME activity of 14 August, with active to minor storm
conditions and isolated major storm periods possible at higher
latitudes. Conditions are expected to return to predominantly
unsettled levels by day three. Moderate to high flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are also
possible throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 147 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/015-025/025-017/017
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU, Yellowknife, NTNuuk
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