Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 September 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to M1/Sf flares in both Regions 9601 (N13W79) and 9608 (S26E33). The first occurred at 08/0457 UTC in 9608 and the second at 08/1923 UTC in 9601. Region 9601 is decaying as it approaches the west limb and 9608 continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it approaches central meridian. There were also C-class subflares in several other Regions, most notably 9610 (S14E48) and 9613 (S17W68). New Regions 9614 (N13W19) and 9615 (N12E64) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class flares are probable and a chance of an isolated major flare in Regions 9601 or 9608 remains.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 250
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  240/230/220
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.14nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.53nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-54nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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