Viewing archive of Friday, 2 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class
events during the past 24 hours. The first was an M1/1f at 2352 UTC
from Region 9682 (N12W37), and the second was an M1/Sf at 0809 UTC
from Region 9687 (S19E61). Region 9682 continues to dominate the
disk in size and complexity. Region 9687, however, has exhibited
more frequent flare activity. Region 9684 (N06E00) appears to be
growing slowly and is developing some magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
major flare event during the next three days. Regions 9682 and 9687
are considered to be the most likely sources for energetic activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 214 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 015/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 012/008-010/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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