Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9714 (S09W95) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 02/1500 UTC
as it crossed the west limb. A post-flare loop prominence system
followed this flare. Region 9715 (N04W37) produced isolated C-class
subflares. It remained the most impressive region on the disk, but
showed signs of gradual decay with a modest decrease in area.
However, it remained magnetically complex as a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its interior spots. Region 9718
(S06E16) showed minor growth and produced isolated subflares, one of
which reached C-class. Some polarity mixing persisted in the trailer
portion of this region. New Region 9725 (S11W45) emerged during the
period. New Region 9726 (S15E69) rotated into view today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate during the period with isolated M-class flares
likely. There will also be a chance for an isolated major flare
during the period from Region 9715.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected. However, there will be a chance for active periods during
04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare from Region 9715.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 245
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 245/245/245
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 010/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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