Viewing archive of Monday, 3 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been moderate. The NOAA/SXI test
imagery observed an M2 event from Region 9714 at 02/2206 UTC as it
rotated around the southwest limb of the sun. Region 9715 (N04W49)
continues to show a slight decay from yesterday. New Region 9727
(S22E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 9715
and 9718 (S07E03).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible for 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 235 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 230/225/225 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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