Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9718 (S06W09)
produced two low level M-class events during the period. New Region
9728 (N36W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Region 9718.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 233 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 008/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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