Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class flares
have occurred through the period. There are fourteen numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk with Region 9718 (S07W24) being
the largest at approximately 660 millionths and 34 spots. Region
9727 (S21E42) has grown in area and spot count and is currently a
Dko beta-gamma-delta group with 14 spots. Two new regions were
numbered today as Regions 9729 (N24E04) and 9730 (S13E49).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9718 is still capable of producing an isolated
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 237 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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