Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 December 2001

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Region 9727 (S20W10) produced today's largest flare: a C6/1f at 1541 UTC. There were several additional C-class flares during the day: most of these were from Regions 9727 and 9733 (N14E58). However, a C2 flare at 0421 UTC was observed to originate from the southeast limb and was associated with a narrow-width CME. The region subsequently rotated into view and was assigned 9734 (S12E81). Region 9727 showed some growth today with the development of spots north of the dominant leader spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. The main sources for activity are expected to be Region 9727 and Region 9733.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the third day.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec

Class M	60%	60%	60%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       09 Dec 224
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 219

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  007/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  012/012-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	20%	20%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	25%	25%
Minor storm	20%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (505.1 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.96nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-63nT)

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