Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 January 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9773 (N13E52) produced an M1.9/1f flare at 05/1840 UTC and a number of minor C-class flares. Region 9767 (S22W03) produced only C-class flares and has remained mostly unchanged since yesterday, maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9773 and Region 9767 have the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period at unsettled conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started on 30/0245 UTC has ended at 04/2355 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A weak shock from the C5/1f event on 03/0220 UTC is expected to arrive midday on day one of the period and could produce slight disturbances.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 212
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  008/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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