Viewing archive of Friday, 4 January 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Activity was at moderate levels. New Region 9773 (N14E64) was numbered today. This region produced an M1/Sf flare at 04/1749 UTC. Region 9773 also produced a C3 flare at 04/0952 UTC with an associated eruptive prominence and Type II radio sweep (537 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an Earth directed component. Region 9767 (S22E08) produced a minor C6/Sf flare at 04/2304 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9767 has the potential for M class events. New Region 9773 is rotating onto the northeast limb and is showing signs of increased activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The Geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The >10 MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress, peak flux was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. Stratwarm conditions remains in effect.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected on the first day of the period. A shock arrival from a C5/1f on 03/0220 UTC event is expected to arrive midday on day two of the period. By day three activity is expected to return to unsettled levels. The >10 MeV proton event is expected to end late today or early on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton99%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 218
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  006/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  005/008-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%20%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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