Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9733 (N14W36) remained the most active sunspot group on the disk. It
produced two M-class flares: an M1/2N at 16/0124 UTC and an M1/1f at
16/0328 UTC. Minor radio emission accompanied both flares. Region
9733 decreased slightly in area and magnetic complexity and appeared
to lose the magnetic delta configuration within its northernmost
spots. However, it retained a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 9739 (S13W43) appeared to be in a gradual
growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9742 (N08E64)
produced isolated subflares during the period. Magnetogram images
suggest this region may possess a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity, though it is difficult to gauge given its limb
proximity. New Region 9743 (S10E73) produced isolated subflares as
it rotated into view. It may represent the return of old Region 9714
(S08, L = 195), which produced M-class flares during its last
rotation. New Region 9744 (S06E24) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated, low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9733 may produce a major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a
chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 209
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 205/200/195
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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