Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the period. The largest of these was an C5/1f long
duration flare at 12/1442 UTC from Region 9825 (N13E29). This
region continues to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is
currently an Eai beta-gamma group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9825 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 208 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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