Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare occurred at
28/0012 UTC and was associated with an eruptive limb event near
S25W90. Several C-class subflares also occurred. Regions 9844
(N22W34) and 9845 (N18E08) grew in sunspot number and area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 204 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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