Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare occurred at 28/0012 UTC and was associated with an eruptive limb event near S25W90. Several C-class subflares also occurred. Regions 9844 (N22W34) and 9845 (N18E08) grew in sunspot number and area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 204
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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