Viewing archive of Friday, 10 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9946 (S06E38)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 10/0039 UTC.
This region produced a couple of smaller C-class flares as well.
Region 9934 (S16W46) has shown a rapid growth in penumbral coverage
which contributed to the reformation of the delta magnetic complex
in the trailing portion of the cluster. Even so, this region was
limited to minor flares, point brightenings, and surges throughout
the period. Region 9937 (S08W25) produced several small C-class
flares and has shown a slight growth in the spot coverage since
yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9947
(N23W46) and Region 9948 (S21E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 appears quite capable of producing M-class
flare activity
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle
latitudes. Quiet to active conditions were seen at the high
latitudes. ACE satellite data suggests a solar sector boundary
crossing may have been responsible for the elevated field activity
at the higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 191 Predicted 11 May-13 May 195/200/195 90 Day Mean 10 May 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 526AR 13901 110AR 13903 1Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1246Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |