Viewing archive of Friday, 21 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours with
the occurrence of just two C-class flares. The first of these was a
C1 at 0506 UTC that appears to be associated with activity just
beyond the southwest limb. The second C-flare was a C1 at 2020 UTC:
at the time of forecast issue there was not data available to
determine a source region. Region 8 (S08E39) continues to be the
largest group on the disk but was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected to prevail for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 140 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 007/008-010/010-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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