Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events (an
M2.3 at 08/2320 UTC, and an M1.0 at 09/0905 UTC) along with a C8.6
event (at 09/0413 UTC) all occurred from an apparent emergent source
near the northwest limb. Associated activity in this area was
evident in SOHO/EIT imagery and in H-alpha imagery from the IPS
Culgoora observatory. Other activity included an unusual tenflare
(250 sfu at 09/1858 UTC) that occurred without notable x-ray
enhancement. However, a possible source was evident in an
impressive backside full-halo CME, seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery at
09/1931 UTC. New Region 30 (N18E74) rotated into view and was
numbered today. This large, bipolar region was the likely source of
yesterday's M-class event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
occurred in apparent response to gradually increasing solar wind
speed and periods of southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active conditions may occur late in the period in response
to an expected onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 136
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 135/140/135
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 010/010-008/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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