Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 August 2002
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 180 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnKuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
TamperePetrozavodsk
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