Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 November 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02). The largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC. Magnetic complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged today. Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady decay. A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201 (S16W09).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected at low to moderate levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. Elevated geomagnetic activity is in response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are possible through day one. A steady return to quiet to unsettled conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should reach moderate to high levels by day three.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       21 Nov 151
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 173

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  013/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  035/055
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  025/035-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	30%	20%
Minor storm	25%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	20%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	45%	35%	25%
Minor storm	25%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	20%	15%	05%

All times in UTC

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