Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 226
(S28W15) produced two M-class flares today. The largest was an
M2.4/1n flare that occurred at 18/0642 UTC, a slightly smaller
M1.6/Sf flare occurred at 17/2335 UTC, with several lesser C-class
flares originating from this region today as well. The magnetic
delta spot configuration remains evident in the intermediate cluster
of spots. Region 229 (N19E12) did not produce optically correlated
flare activity during the period although the areal spot coverage
has increased and the magnetic gamma characteristics remain intact.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 226 and 229 have the potential of
producing M-class event activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels once the onset of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream begins, which is expected
to occur on day one of the forecast period. Day two should see
predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods
of minor storm levels. A return to predominantly unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods should occur on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 197 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 195/195/195 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 020/035-018/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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