Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 December 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 226 (S18W01) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC. This region has continued to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic delta configuration in its intermediate spots. Shortly following the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray enhancement at 16/2336 UTC. Other flare activity included several C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225 (N17E11). New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. A slight chance for an isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region 226.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 Dec 213
  Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  205/205/195
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 165

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  015/015-020/035-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	35%	30%
Minor storm	05%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	45%	40%
Minor storm	10%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	10%	05%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.03nT), the direction is North (10.73nT).

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