Viewing archive of Monday, 16 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 225 (N17E23)
produced an M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio
sweeps at 16/1115 UTC. No CME was evident in LASCO imagery
following this event. Other activity included numerous C-class
flares from several regions, notably from 226 (S28E12), 227
(N07W07), and 229 (N18E37). All of today's flare producing regions
have shown some growth in size and/or magnetic complexity. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The regions discussed in
section 1A above all appear to be possible sources for isolated
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods. A gradual reduction in high speed stream effects
was apparent in data from the ACE satellite over the course of the
day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-36 hours.
Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to develop on day
two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated active and
possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three of the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 203 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 010/010-015/015-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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