Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 242 has now rotated
around the west limb near S07, but continues to be quite active. It
was the likely source of several small C-class flares and was
responsible for today's largest event, a C6 flare at 14/0636Z. The
largest region on the disk is Region 255 (S13W12). This region's
close proximity to Region 251 (S14W05) adds complexity, but activity
this period was limited to occasional fluctuations in the plage
field. A large prominence eruption off the SE limb was observed to
begin at around 14/1700Z. New Regions 258 (N07E56) and 259 (N13E72)
were numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a thorough analysis, but
limb activity was considerable over the past few days in the
vicinity of these newly numbered regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at higher latitudes. A period (04-12Z) of mostly southward
orientation in the IMF was responsible for the more disturbed
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 164
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
All times in UTC
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