Viewing archive of Monday, 2 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N10E35) produced
the largest event of the period, a C9/Sf flare at 02/1927 UTC. This
region has undergone minor growth in size and spot count and shown
an increase in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. Region
207 (S20E06) remains the largest region on the visible disk, and
produced a C1/Sf flare at 02/2033 UTC. An impressive partial-halo
CME was visible over the northwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
starting at about 02/1750 UTC, but a lack in corresponding
observations of notable x-ray enhancement or optical flare activity
suggests a likely backside source for this event. Two new regions
were numbered today: Region 211 (S08E04) and Region 212 (N13E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a slight chance for moderate flare activity
during the next three days. Region 208 appears to be the most
likely source for possible M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely
to persist at high levels for the next one to three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 146
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 155/160/175
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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