Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. An optically uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 07/1000 UTC. Region 208 (N09W38) continues a gradual decay in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. Region 214 (N13W55) has grown slightly in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak polarity mixing has developed in the intermediate area. No other significant changes on the visible disk were observed in the last twenty-four hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to coronal hole effects. Solar wind velocities reached peak values near 600 km/s at 07/0900 UTC and have stabilized near 550 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly positive resulting in only isolated active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions on day one and day two of the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 151
  Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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