Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 6 December 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 214 (N12W41) produced a C2/Sf at 06/0856 UTC. Region 214 exhibited gradual growth in penumbral area and spot count. Region 208 (N09W24) has shown slight decay but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 212 (N12E21) grew in spot count and has developed into a Dao spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low. Isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 208, Region 212, or Region 214.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sector boundary crossing and coronal hole effects were observed late in the day by the NASA/ACE spacecraft. At about 06/1630 UTC solar wind velocity increased to near 410 km/s and continues a gradual rise. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels for the eighth straight day. GOES-8 values reached 8230 pfu today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The arrival of a coronal hole and the possibility of shock effects from the M2 event on 04 November are expected to result in quiet to active conditions on day one. Coronal hole effects should continue through day two and three of the forecast period with isolated active conditions possible.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec

Class M	30%	30%	35%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       06 Dec 148
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 168

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  012/015-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	30%	20%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	25%
Minor storm	10%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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