Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 1306 UTC. SOHO/EIT images suggest that newly assigned Region 242 (S08E61) was the source for the event. New Region 241 (S25W40) was assigned today. Region 239 (S09W17) continues to be the largest group on the disk with an area of 70 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind density, velocity, and total magnetic field showed a steady increase beginning around 1700 UTC. This may mark the beginning of a corotating interaction associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days due to coronal hole effects. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 118
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  012/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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