Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 10/1226 UTC. An optical flare report for this flare was not received. Region 220 (S12E33) is the largest group on the disk. Other disk regions are relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 220 is the most likely source of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 161
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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