Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 November 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region 191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195 (S15E78) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated quiet and active periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov

Class M	75%	75%	75%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       13 Nov 182
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 178

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  010/012-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	25%	35%
Minor storm	10%	10%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	35%	45%
Minor storm	15%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	10%

All times in UTC

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